美中俄乌等十国学者共议“世界末日最后100秒”

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编者按：北京时间2月20日凌晨，由德国希勒研究所主办的“世界末日前的最后100秒：我们需要新的安全架构”研讨会在线举行（附议程），来自美国、俄罗斯、乌克兰、欧洲等10个国家的学者在线讨论当下严重的全球安全形势。中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、中美人文交流研究中心（教育部）执行主任王文受邀，专门就《中俄联合声明》情况做了主题介绍。现将其视频发言与文字内容整理如下：

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院执行院长、中美人文交流研究中心（教育部）执行主任王文在研讨会上的发言视频（中英双语）

感谢威廉﹒琼斯先生和希勒研究所的邀请，让我分享一些关于中俄共同声明的看法。两周前，我就这个主题接受俄罗斯媒体Eurasia EXPERT专访，在俄罗斯引起了不少关注。我今天想与大家分享三个观点：

第一，中俄关系进入新时代。

2月4日，普京总统来华出席冬奥会开幕式，与中华人民共和国国家主席习近平9年来第38次见面会晤，期间又签署《中俄关于国际关系进入新时代和全球可持续发展的联合声明》，见证15项中俄合作协议，为新华社撰文。

正如我们知道的，2月4日，是中国春节期间第四天，又是中国农历立春，又是冬奥开幕，普京总统用撰文、出席、声明、签约等多彩方式，在中国掀起了多年未见的“俄罗斯热”。正如普京总统撰文中提到：“俄中全面战略协作伙伴关系进入新时代，达到了前所未有的水平，成为高效、负责和面向未来的典范”，两个大国能够如此互信、合作、高效，是两国人民之幸，也是世界之幸。

俄罗斯总统在文章中说，我们两国正在形成一个互利的能源联盟。文章提到：“除了向中国长期运送俄罗斯碳氢化合物外，我们还计划实施一些重大的联合项目。” 

“互利的能源联盟”的说法，在中国能源界引起很大的反响。中俄加大合作的速度应该更快一些，对欧亚地区经济一体化进程的推动还将继续深化。

2021年中俄贸易额超过1400亿美元，增长26%。两国领导人确定中俄贸易达到2000-2500亿美元的目标，就是在2021年基础上再增长42%-78%。我认为，随着新冠疫情的消失以及两国的努力，这个目标的实现可能还会比我们想象得要更快。

在共同声明中，俄罗斯和中国打算在EAEU和“一带一路”倡议框架内加强合作，深化合作。

目前，中国已与148个国家、32个国际组织签署200多份“一带一路”合作备忘录。“一带一路”已成为全球最大的公共产品。EAEU和“一带一路”加强合作，实现了两国的双赢，是“一带一路”全球合作中区域最大、影响最强的成果。

第二，俄罗斯和中国恢复友好关系的原因是什么？

中俄两国领导人持续不断的努力，是两国友好关系不断进步的首要原因。过去9年，中俄两国领导人每年都有4-5次会晤，是真正的好朋友。中俄两国在外交政策、全球治理、安全战略上高度保持一致，是背靠背、肩并肩的战略合作伙伴。

用中国网民的说法是，两国互信，把没有防备的身后完全交付给了对方，当自己挥刀对抗外来势力的时候，不会担心有敌人从后面袭来。两国不是传统中的盟友，却胜于盟友。我们希望这种互信的关系，能够永远存在下去。

中俄两国领导人努力让两个国家实现友好，永不战争与冲突，这将是人类文明与大国博弈历史的巨大进步。而要实现这个目标，首先要做的是让两国基建、贸易、交通、投资、人员、信息都能够进一步互联互通，让两个国家像一家人那样互相帮助、共同进步。从这个角度看，两国合作还有很长的路要走，但我们有信心。

第三，俄罗斯和中国领导人的联合声明证明了什么？

关于新时代和全球可持续发展的联合声明，首先说明了中俄两国在民主、发展、安全与世界秩序、疫情等重大战略主题上的共同立场。这种共同立场对世界和平、文明进步意义重大，是对过去500年来国强必霸、大国兴衰规律的超越。

中俄两国对国际上少数势力奉行单边主义、干涉他们内政、损害他国正当权益，制造矛盾分歧与对抗的行为进行强烈的批判。我相信，所有人都知道，两国批判的是哪个国家。

声明中还有一句话唯一用了“强烈谴责”的句，是点名道姓地对美国、英国、澳大利亚建立的“三边安全伙伴”，即所谓的“AUKUS”。中国网民戏称其为“澳哭死”。中国知名媒体人胡锡进的一个比喻很有意思，两头狮子的合作比一头狮子笼络几只狗管用。

这就是我的观点。再次感谢邀请！

会议议程第一部分

会议议程第二部分

以下为发言英文版

Many thanks for Mr. Bill Jones and Schiller Institute for inviting me to share some views on the China-Russian joint statement. Two weeks ago, I received an exclusive interview with Russian media Eurasia expert on this topic, which attracted a lot of attention in Russia. I’d like to share three viewpoints now again.

First, China-Russia entered a new era. On February 4, President Putin visited China to attend the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympic Games and met with the Chinese President Xi Jinping for the 38th time in nine years. During the meeting, they signed the China Russian joint statement on entering a new era of international relations and global sustainable development, witnessed 15 China-Russian cooperation agreements and wrote an article for Xinhua news agency.

As we knew, on February 4, the fourth day of the Chinese lunar new year, the beginning of the spring of Chinese lunar calendar and the opening ceremony day of the Winter Olympics, President Putin set off a "Russian Hot" in China in a variety of ways, such as writing, attending, making statements, signing contracts, interview and so on. As President Putin mentioned in his Xinhua Agency article, "the Russia China comprehensive strategic partnership of coordination has entered a new era, reached an unprecedented level and become a model of efficiency, responsibility and future orientation". How the two major countries can trust, cooperate and be efficient is the blessing of the two peoples and the world.

In his article, the President of Russia said that a mutually beneficial energy alliance is being formed between our countries. He said, "Along with long-term deliveries of Russian hydrocarbons to China, we plan to implement a number of major joint projects". 

The statement of "mutually beneficial energy alliance" has aroused great repercussions in China's energy industry. From this perspective, China and Russia will increase cooperation faster, The promotion of economic integration in the Eurasian region will continue to deepen.

In 2021, the trade volume between China and Russia exceeded 140 billion US dollars, an increase of 26%. The leaders of the two countries set the goal of reaching $200-250 billion in China Russian trade, which is to increase by 42% - 78% on the basis of 2021. I believe that with the disappearance of COVID-19 and the efforts of the two countries, this goal will probably be faster than we can imagine. 

In the joint Statement, Russia and China intend to step up work within the framework of the EAEU and the One Belt, One Road initiative (BRI) to deepen cooperation. 

As we knew, China has signed One Belt, One Road initiative (BRI) cooperation MOU with 148 countries and 32 international organizations. BRI has become the largest public product in the world. EAEU and BRI has achieved win-win results. It is the largest and most influential region in the BRI global cooperation maproad. 

Second, what are the reasons for the rapprochement between Russia and China?

The continuous efforts of the leaders of China and Russia are the primary reason for the continuous progress of friendly relations between the two countries. In the past nine years, the leaders of China and Russia have met 4-5 times a year and are really good friends. China and Russia are highly consistent in foreign policy, global governance and security strategy. They are back-to-back and shoulder-to-shoulder strategic partners. 

According to Chinese netizens, the two countries trust each other and completely hand over the unprotected behind to each other. When they wield a gun against foreign enemies, they won't worry about the enemies attacking from behind. The two countries are not traditional allies, but they are better than allies. We hope that this relationship of mutual trust will last forever.

The leaders of China and Russia strive to make the two countries realize friendship and never war and conflict, which will be a great progress in the history of human civilization and the game between great powers. To achieve this goal, we must first make the infrastructure, trade, transportation, investment, personnel and information of the two countries more interconnected, so that the two countries can help each other and make common progress like a family. From this perspective, the two countries’ cooperation is still a long way to go, but we are confident.

Third, what does the joint statement of the leaders of Russia and China testify to?

The joint statement on the new era and global sustainable development first explained the common values of China and Russia on major strategic themes such as democracy, development, security, world order and pandemic. This common values is of great significance to world peace, civilization and progress. It is a transcendence of the law of the rise and fall of a great power over the past 500 years.

China and Russia have strongly criticized the actions of a small number of international forces that pursue unilateralism, interfere in the other countries’ internal affairs, damage the legitimate rights and interests of other countries, and create contradictions, differences and confrontation. I believe everyone knows which country the two countries criticize. 

The only sentence in the statement that used "strong condemnation" was the "trilateral security partner" established by name and surname against the United States, Britain and Australia, the so-called "aukus". Chinese netizens jokingly called it "Australia cries to death". As Hu Xijin, a well-known Chinese media person, has a very interesting metaphor. The cooperation between two lions is more effective than one lion attracting several dogs.

That's my point. Thanks again for the invitation!

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RDCY

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院（人大重阳）成立于2013年1月19日，是重阳投资向中国人民大学捐赠并设立教育基金运营的主要资助项目。

作为中国特色新型智库，人大重阳聘请了全球数十位前政要、银行家、知名学者为高级研究员，旨在关注现实、建言国家、服务人民。目前，人大重阳下设7个部门、运营管理4个中心(生态金融研究中心、全球治理研究中心、中美人文交流研究中心、中俄人文交流研究中心)。近年来，人大重阳在金融发展、全球治理、大国关系、宏观政策等研究领域在国内外均具有较高认可度。

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